SAFM wurde vom Magazin Stocks Anfang April als antizyklisches Investment empfohlen. Damals notierte die Aktie des nordamerikanischen Geflügelproduzenten zwischen 20 und 22 USD. Seither kletterte der Kurs auf über 27.5. Wie schätzt ihr das weitere Potenzial ein?
Der positive Trend scheint bei diesem Titel trotz SMI-Minus und Unsicherheit in den USA anzuhalten (heute: +4.2 %).
Sobald die US-Bevölkerung sich nicht mehr scheut, Geflügel zu essen (gekocht sowieso keine Gefahr wegen der Vogelgrippe), wird der Titel hoffentlich wieder auf seinen vorherigen Stand kommen (USD 40+). Ein konkretes Kursziel getraue ich mich bei der aktuellen Lage trotzdem nicht zu geben.
Hinweis: Ausser der Vogelgrippe gab es für den Kurseinbruch keine objektiven Gründe, ausser intensiver Kosten für den Ausbau des Unternehmens.
Empfehle Dir, auch die Kennzahlen etwa auf yahoo-finance zu verfolgen, freetrader, so etwa EPS 2.5$, Dividende 0.48, PE 11.5, Chart hatte signifikanten Doppelboden gebildet. Target Estimate 25.5. Jetzt 29$. An der NASDAQ gehandelt! Am 25. Mai sollen Quartalszahlen kommen. Ist immer so eine Sache mit Medien-Tipps.
Abschreckendes Beispiel etwa auch Bell-CH. Toller Kursverlauf und dann? Wünsch Dir Glück, der Wert ist hierzulande so gut wie nicht bekannt.
Jedenfalls fast so interessant wie matschige Bananen. Der Nahrungsmittelwert Sysco wurde hier besprochen, war mit Mühe in engen Bandbreiten um die 30$ tradebar.
NEW YORK, May 19 (newratings.com) - Analyst Farha Aslam of Stephens Inc reiterates her "overweight" rating on Sanderson Farms Inc (SAFM.NAS), while raising her estimates for the company. The 12-month price objective has been raised from $30 to $35.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company is likely to post its F2Q06 EPS at -$0.43, which is below the consensus. The macro environment seems to be improving in view of the production cutbacks, improving prices declining cold storage levels and an upturn in exports demand, the analyst adds. The normalized EPS estimate for the full year has been raised from $3.27 to $3.93.
Vielleicht nützt das wem, vielleicht kennt ihr's schon . . . bin nicht investiert.
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Sanderson Farms' Chicken Run
By Stephen D. Simpson, CFA (TMFWildWeasel) May 25, 2006
Well, we all knew this was coming. Every animal-protein producer that I track has had a rougher go of it lately, especially the chicken producers. Seeing Sanderson Farms (Nasdaq: SAFM) take its place next to Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC), Gold Kist (Nasdaq: GKIS), and Tyson (NYSE: TSN) hardly merits surprise.
Sales were down 13% this quarter, due in part to a significant decline in chicken prices. We've heard numbers like these before, but they bear repeating: Average whole chicken prices were down more than 7% (Georgia dock), leg quarters were down more than 43%, breasts were down 30%, and wings were down 13%.
Oh, but it gets better. Those precious pullets still have to eat up until their date with destiny, and though soy-meal costs were down 4.1% on average for the company, corn prices were up 6.5%. That, coupled with lower manufacturing efficiencies and higher prepared-product costs, led to a substantial drop in both operating income and net income.
So why have these chicken stocks been on the run toward higher prices lately? Well, Sanderson is cutting production by more than 4% a week, and other producers have already done likewise. What's more, the overseas markets appear to be reviving a bit, and the company reported that leg-quarter prices (the most commonly exported chicken portion) were up a fair bit sequentially in May.
And let's also not forget that a lot of these protein stocks got pretty cheap in the depths of the bird flu panic. It's entirely possible that the bird flu situation could get worse before it gets better -- or until the media moves on to something else -- but ultimately, folks will keep eating chicken. And since poultry production is increasingly in the hands of larger companies that don't want to commit murder-suicide with overproduction and price competition, I'm thinking that poultry producers' long-term picture is at least OK.
I've already invested happily in the meat-manufacturing sector, so I'm looking elsewhere for cheap food ideas. If you're also looking for some penny-pinching ideas among the edibles, consider Chiquita (NYSE: CQB) or SABMiller, and wait for Sanderson to get a little cheaper again.
Mit Interesse gelesen, danke beta, Branchen diversifizieren. Defensive Nahrungsmittelwerte sind selten Raketen, helfen aber, die Slalomkurven der highblechlastigen oder rohstoffgetriebenen Sektoren abzufedern.
SAFM Sanderson Farms
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