Informationen zur Finanzwelt Schweiz und Liechtenstein

Outlook:
US retailers recorded sales of $27.8bn over the holiday weekend, putting the industry on track for its second-biggest selling season since 1999. Eurozone interest rates are expected to rise next week for the first time in more than five years as European Central tries to choke inflationary pressures. Stock market likely to rise more on the beginning of this week, but we would use strength to start taking some profit in the short-term. Swisscom fills Headlines in press and could see selling pressure as Swiss Governement blocks foreign transactions.

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SMI-Chart:
Hourly momentum oscillators look still somewhat mixed but the corresponding price uptrends are intact and continue to support the configuration res 7495/510, 7560/70, 7600/20 sup 7435/45, 7390/400, 7360/70, 7315/25

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Company News:
Adecco(ADEN VX) Klaus Jacobs does not plan on staying chairman beyond AGM 2007 where he will hand over to a yet unknown successor (BB)

Clariant(CLN VX) CSFB upgrade from neutral to outperform and increase price target from CHF 20 to CHF 21 (CSFB research update)

Nestle(NESN VX) Nestle has threatened to move ist UK chocolate production to low-cost countries due to a row over its contribution to the Pensions Protection Fund (Reuters)

Novartis(NOVXN VX) company sells Nutrition unit to ABN Amro Capital for EUR 220mln (sales of unit EUR 245mln, oper.profit EUR 21mln) (BB)

Roche(ROG VX) company confirms it will deliver an additional 1.3mln doses of Tamiflu to Taiwan Roche will also make an announcement on licencing Tamiflu in early December (BB)

Swisscom(SCMN VX) After government€™s pledge to block any foreign acquisition the chair of CEO Alder might look shaky FT reports he may quit without disclosing source (FT). DeutscheBank downgrade from hold to sell and cut price target from CHF 400 to CHF 355 (DB research update)

SwissRe(RUKN VX) company may be interested in purchasing the with-profits fund of The Equitable Life Assurance Society (BB)

ZurichFin(ZURN VX) company plans a major push in the market for German industrial, according to FT Deutschland the Swiss insurer hopes to profit from rivals restructurings, the newspaper reported (FT)

Actelion(ATLN SW) Tracleer shows no effect in patients with pulmonary fibrosis neither Tracleer nor Bosentan improved the walking ability of patients in a study (BB)

Daetwyler(DAE SW) stock reached a new 52week high on Friday CFO commented on Friday that the company is not going to sell part of their business, denying market rumors he further reiterated the company€™s FY05 targets (Reuters)

Esmertec(ESMN SW) UBS initiate coverage with a neutral rating and price target of CHF 21 (UBS research update)
Temenos(TEMN SW) UBS initiate coverage with a buy rating and price target of CHF 15 (UBS research update)
Ypsomed(YPSN SW) company said chairman and founder Willy Michel and BV Holding AG sold 3.2% of the company€™s shares Michel reduced his holding to 68.6% from 71.2% - while BV Holding lowered its stake to 0.9% from 1.5% - the sales increase the company€™s free float to 30% (BB)

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Sales Corner: (This area may contain views which can differ from the official bank's opinion!)
J.Bär - foreign interest in stock still around
ABB - strong performance to continue - CEO Kindle hopes to find a final solution for the asbestos problem by end of the year

Roche - mid-term remains a core holding in depots
SIG - still in speculative trading hands - be aware of risk
Syngenta - ambitious program of new agchem and GM seed product launches to come - high EBIT margins - still attractive valuation

Holcim - good support from overseas interest - further up-move likely
Adecco - CHF 60.-- looks like strong barrier
Kühne & Nagel - to eventually join SMI in 06
Banks - if 4th quarter continues its fast path; banking stock performance should continue
CHRISTMAS BUSINESS important for Lindt & Sprüngli, Swatch and Richemont - stocks should have further upside potential - Federation of Swiss Watch will release Oct. export today

Outlook (PreMarket SMI: -8.5 / 7419):
As we mentioned yesterday equities weaken on profit-taking worldwide. Sentiment towards equities and the greenback weakened as the day advanced. Traders should close some positions in the short-term. Mid-term strength still on track, the bullish mood carries over into early weeks next year.

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SMI-Chart:
Hourly momentum oscillators are topping, favouring some further erosion but price uptrends are still intact, watch next short-term key supports; res 7470; 7500; 7540/5; 7600/20 sup 7420/30, 7390/400, 7350/5, 7285/95

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Company News:
Adecco(ADEN VX) company says Jacobs Holding holds 16.4% of its voting rights (BB)
Givaudan(GIVN VX) Inter Parfums (IPAR US) increase FY06 EPS/sales outlook Givaudan on roadshow in Germany today and tomorrow (BB)

Nestle(NESN VX) UBS increase price target from CHF 430 to CHF 455, confirm buy rating (UBS research update)
Swisscom(SCMN VX) ongoing discussion about Eircom bid and the government role as a dominant shareholder (BB)
ZurichFin(ZURN VX) company plans to sell 500mln to 1bn $ subordinated debt (ECAPS) in private placement names Markus Hongler as CEO of Swiss ops. (BB)

Actelion(ATLN SW) UBS cut price target from CHF 170 to CHF 150, confirm buy rating (UBS research update). Morgan Stanley cut price target from CHF 166 to CHF 139, rating still overweight (MS research update)

BarryCallebaut(BARN SW) CSFB increase price target from CHF 375 to CHF 500 and reiterate outperform rating (CSFB research update)

Basilea(BSLN SW) company will today make a presentation at the annual shareholder meeting of New Venturetec Ltd (BB)
BCV(BCVN SW) 9m gross profit +20% at 358.5mln / cost income ratio 62% (vs 67%) / AuM +6% at 34.4bn will buy 15% of Dynagest (AM and advisory firm) expects sharp improvement in full year gross profit (BB)

Edipresse(EDI SW) Incr. Edition of LeMatinBleu (free of charge journal) from 100€™000 to 110€™000 (targets 180€™000) faces heavy competition from Tamedia, Tamedia will launch its own journal in March 2006 (BB)

Feintool(FTON SW) FY sales CHF 487.2mln / EBIT 27.3mln (vs 24.9mln) / net profit 15.2mln (vs 13.6mln) / company proposes CHF 8 dividend per share (vs CHF 4), says current year€™s order situation is good, orders at hand at same level as last years€™s (BB)

Lindt&Sprüngli(LISP SW) CSFB downgrade from neutral to underperform due to valuation and reiterate price target of CHF 1850 (CSFB research update)

Micronas(MASN SW) Arnold and S. Bleichroeder holds new 5.03% (1€™638€™280 shares) (BB)
Schulthess(SGRN SW) company bought a German air-conditioning manufacturer (KKT Kraus Industriekühlung GmbH), to expand its cooling division no terms disclosed (BB)

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Sales Corner: (This area may contain views which can differ from the official bank's opinion!)
ABB - strong performance to continue - CEO Kindle hopes to find a final solution for the asbestos problem by end of the year

Roche - mid-term remains a core holding in depots
SIG - volatile - be aware of risk
Syngenta - ambitious program of new agchem and GM seed product launches to come - high EBIT margins - still attractive valuation

Holcim - good support from overseas interest - further up-move likely
CHRISTMAS BUSINESS - still important for luxury goods sector
Chocolate business - CSFB switches from Lindt & Sprüngli (due to strong performance this year) to Barry Callebaut
Be aware of all the MSCI adjustments as of tomorrow - could give some pressure on NOVN, UBSN and VALN - on the other hand some buying in KNIN

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Outlook (PreMarket SMI: - 5.5 / 7435.2):
We€™ve had a nice rally and we€™re just giving back some of those gains. Market is taking a pause. It€™s more buyers taking a wait and see approach rather than any aggressive selling.

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SMI-Chart:
Hourly momentum topped out and showing divergences. Break below 7420 / 7390 to increase risks. Res 7470, 7500, 7540/5, 7600/20 Sup 7420/30, 7390/400, 7350/5, 7285/95

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Company News:
Adecco(ADEN VX) French unemployment rate in October falls to 9.7% (vs 9.8% Sept) French Gvmt subsidized apprentice and temp. worker jobs (BB)

Kudelski(KUD VX) Kudelski confirmed that hackers had managed to use smart-cards to bypass its encryption technology and view pay-TV broadcasts by Germany€™s Premiere. Kudelski€™s CFO M. Saladini told Reuters that the firm was aware of a restricted€ number of smart cards having been hacked, but the situation was not yet serious enough to warrant an upgrade of its software (Reuters). GS publishes initial coverage in stock with in line rating due to focus on underlying growth (Broker)

Lonza(LONN VX) Lonza expands its Italian Malic acid production to 12€™000 tons/year vs current 8€™000, the company said (BB)

Nestle(NESN VX) Nestle announced yesterday on its UK unit€™s web site, that it has recalled two KitKat batches from Tesco€™s UK stores, as a precaution measure because they may contain traces of metal (BB)

Roche(ROG VX) Piramed (private UK company) in 230mln $ funding deal to develop cancer treatments (large pre-clinical deal) with Genentech (BB)

SwissLife(SLHN VX) SwissLife holds investor day tomorrow in Zurich (BB)

Galencia(GALN SW) company holds a news conference today between 10am and 11am local time on a reorganization of the company (BB)

IndustrieholdingCham(INDN SW) IC Cham to sell remaining 6.52% stake in Kardex back to own shareholders. Mgmt has not decided yet over form of pay-out (BB)

Kühne&Nagel(KNIN SW) company expects to be included in the SMI Index by end 2006 the latest company fulfills free float criteria (BB)

Logitech(LOGN SW) UBS increase price target from CHF 48 to CHF 60, confirm neutral rating. UBS remain confident on Logitech€™s prospects for this Christmas (UBS research update)

Swisslog(SLOG SW) company names Christian Maeder as CFO following the resignation of Kristian Schleede (BB)
Unilabs(ULB SW) at yesterdays AGM the shareholders have decided that the company will not distribute a dividend this year and that the accumulated retained earnings will be carried forward. It was further decided to distribute free of charge, to all shareholders of record on December 15, 2005, options to acquire new shares (BB)

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Sales Corner: (This area may contain views which can differ from the official bank's opinion!)
ABB - strong performance to continue - CEO Kindle hopes to find a final solution for the asbestos problem by end of the year

Roche - mid-term remains a core holding in depots
SIG - volatile - be aware of risk
Syngenta - ambitious program of new agchem and GM seed product launches to come - high EBIT margins - still attractive valuation

Holcim - good support from overseas interest - further up-move likely
CHRISTMAS BUSINESS - still important for luxury goods sector
Chocolate business - CSFB switches from Lindt & Sprüngli (due to strong performance this year) to Barry Callebaut
Be aware of all the MSCI adjustments as of today - could give some pressure on NOVN, UBSN and VALN - on the other hand some buying in KNIN

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Outlook:
We€™re seeing relatively quiet profit taking. The market is near-term overbought. Investors inmoved despite positive outlook painted by US GDP figures. Today ECB decision expected (+0.25%). We don€™t expect to see big pressure. The bullish mood should carry over into first quarter next year.

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SMI-Chart:
According to the hourly momentum some rebound is expected but risks remain intact unless 7480/7510 can be cleared. Res 7480, 7510, 7540/5, 7600/20 sup 7390/400, 7350/5, 7285/95

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Company News:
SIG(SIGN SW) SIG launches share buyback program of up to CHF 100mln and announces it will increase dividend payout ratio significantly, 30% to 40% of its net profit (via nominal value reduction). The share buy-back will begin mid-January and last until SIG€™s 2007 shareholders€™ meeting at the latest. Shares bought back will be cancelled (BB)

BernaBiotech(BBIN SW) Crucell launches bid for Berna offering 0.447 of its shares for each Berna share. (0.447 own shares = 15.72 CHF) This represents a premium of 27% over yesterday€™s close. Offer runs from December 15th until January 20th. Berna board recommends to accept the offer (BB)

SwissLife(SLHN VX) Investor Day today - SwissLife repeats it aims for CHF 1bn profit in 2008 and ROE of above 10% over long-term (BB)

SwissRe(RUKN VX) CEO Aigrain sees further acquisitions after the completion of GE insurance unit acquisition (BB)
Unaxis(UNAX VX) Unaxis hires Morgan Stanley to advise it on development possibilities of its portfolio, also looking closely at A-Tec (BB)

UBS(UBSN VX) Deutsche Bank increase price target from CHF 139 to CHF 146, reiterates buy (DB research update)
J.Bär(BAER VX) Deutsche Bank cut price target from CHF 114 to CHF 104, reiterates buy (DB research update)
Novartis(NOVN VX) Rival GlaxoSK seeks US approval for Lapatinib (oral breast cancer drug) end 2006. Three other cancer drugs in pipeline. Novartis warned of possible Femara side-effects (BB)

Swisscom(SCMN VX) Swisscom plans to spend CHF 600-700mln next year on its fixed-line unit (BB)
Nestle(NESN VX) The Michigan Court of Appeals stated definitively that the use of water by Nestle Waters is beneficial use and ruled that the company€™s water use at its Stanwood-based Ice Mountain bottling facility could continue (BB)

Kuoni(KUNN SW) to restructure its incoming services business, to rename unit to destination management (BB)
Kühne&Nagel(KNIN SW) Kühne may quit Hamburg over Bahn Port plans, in protest against Dt. Bahn AG€™s plan to purchase parts of the city€™s port operater (BB)

Comet(COTN SW) company sells its Dosimetry business (2004 sales of CHF 3.2mln) to its former management member. No financial details were given (BB)

Conzzeta(CZH SW) Bystronic glass, a business of Conzzeta has acquired the Canadian technology company Intra Product Development. It is specialized in the development of technologies for the cost-effective manufacture of PVC windows. No financial details were given (BB)

Logitech(LOGN SW) Skype offers web video phone-calling feature. Jointly market Skype Video and Logitech webcams and phone headsets worldwide (BB)

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Sales Corner: (This area may contain views which can differ from the official bank's opinion!)
SwissSteel - pure small player - strong interest in the stock after they bought this year Thyssen Krupp business - further up-move expected

ABB - strong performance to continue - CEO Kindle hopes to find a final solution for the asbestos problem by end of the year

Roche - mid-term remains a core holding in depots
SIG - volatile
Syngenta - ambitious program of new agchem and GM seed product launches to come - high EBIT margins - still attractive valuation

Holcim - good support from overseas interest - further up-move likely
SwissLife / ZurichFin - interest in both insurance stocks going on - strong performance expected into first quarter next year

CHRISTMAS BUSINESS - still important for luxury goods sector
Chocolate business - CSFB switches from Lindt & Sprüngli (due to strong performance this year) to Barry Callebaut
Serono - remains in volatile trading range due to fact that strategy could be changed in the foreseenable future
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SMI-Chart:
The hourly momentum constellation looks somewhat mixed; the index seems to wait for an impetus to cross the 7620 key level; res 7620, 7645/55, 7710/30

sup 7570/5, 7520/35, 7500/10, 7460
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Company News:
Adecco(ADEN VX) Jacobs Group owns around 22.9% of company subject regulatory approvals it intends to buy a further 12mln shares tranche (would bring its holding to around 29%) (BB)

Nestle(NESN VX) Nestle€™s Reichenberger to step down from Alcon board at year end (BB)
Novartis(NOVN VX) US regulatory approval to buy Chiron, expect completion in 1H 2006 (BB)
Roche(ROG VX) Vietnam has banned sale Tamiflu on the open market to ensure correct use€ and available stock if pandemic hits (BB)

Synthes(SYST VX) Barron€™s article rec€™s orthopaedic device makers, price fears overdone sees global hip/knee implant sales of $15bn by 2010 (BB)

ZurichFin(ZURN VX) company sold $1.3bn of bonds in 2 parts names some new mangers to strengthen risk management part (BB)

Ascom(ASCN SW) Network integration unit got EUR 8mln order from Italy€™s Wind Ascom wins orders for Vienna, Zurich and Stuttgart train info systems (BB)

Bobst(BOBNN SW) holds analyst conf. Today, 11:15 CET, Zurich (BB)
Basilea(BSLN SW) Morgan Stanley increase price target from CHF 136 to CHF 165 and confirm overweight rating (MS research update)

Private EquityHolding(PEHN SW) F&W speculates CSFB behind recent big off ex print stock trades still with around 24% discount to NAV (BB)

SIG(SIGN SW) Sterling to ask board to resign at next AGM (30th March) says management had 3 take over offers up to CHF 360 per share also will seek due diligence vote at next AGM (BB)

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Outlook (PreMarket SMI: +0.4 / 7491.4):
Housing market to provide pointers on wider economy as an important theme for this weeks data releases. Some negative influeces incl. the rise in interest rates and taxation that have weighed on consumer spending should start to face.

Crude-oil futures dropped almost $2-a-barrel in value by the close Friday and natural-gas futures lost nearly 5% for the week, pressured by a forecast for warmer weather in the western United States. Pfizer +11% wins Lipitor patent case against Ranbaxy. Watch out as well for Astrazeneca Crestor€.

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Christmas and New Year Holiday in Switzerland: closed only on Monday 26th Dec and Monday 2nd Jan
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SMI-Chart:
Technical problems sorry
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Company News:
Converium(CHRN SW) Q3 gross premiums written $432.4mln Q3 op income $22.1mln - Q3 net loss at $6.9mln Q3 non-life combined ratio 110.9% - company to restate info for quarters from March 2003, to report those in near future€, company says North American run-off exceeds targets, FY gross premiums written of $2bn achievable, net impact in Q3 from hurricanes Katrina $37.5mln, from Rita $10mln (BB)

Holcim(HOLN VX) Rival Cemex sees Q4 EPS +54% (strong demand in US, turnaround in Mexico) stock lost 1.1% (shares up 65% since start of year, gave conservative forecast for 2006) (BB)

Lonza(LONN VX) Lonza buys Nutrinova€™s DHA business, a Celanese unit, no price given (BB)
Nestle(NESN VX) Alcon said a court awarded $213.9mln in damages to Advanced Medical Optics Inc in a patent-infringement lawsuit (BB)

Novartis(NOVN VX) Novartis reports positive study data for anti-herpes drug Famvir has filed for supplemental new drug application this fall (BB)

Swisscom(SCMN VX) board decides to ban CEO Alder from commenting on the governments role in the company (BB)
Unaxis(UNAX VX) Rumen Hranov holds 7.022% of voting rights, 0.156% via shares, rest via options (BB)

Basilea(BSLN SW) Basilea announced today that it maintains global marketing and manufacturing rights to BAL8557 (antifungal agent) foll Roche€™s decision not to exercise its opt-in right BAL8557 will be Basilea€™s third compound to enter phase III clinical development, planned to commence in 2006 (BB)

BernaBiotech(BBIN SW) Novartis says is undertaking due diligence on Bernac Biotech and may compete with Crucell€™s offer possibly offering an all cash deal versus Crucell€™s all stock offer (BB)

Komax(KOMN SW) Ismeca Automation, a unit of the Komax, announced that it has received an order worth CHF 15mln the customer is a world-leading computer and electronics manufacturer from the US (BB)

Sika(SIK SW) Sika says anti-trust regulators clear Sarna acquisition (BB)
Unilabs(ULB SW) Unilabs will buy a testing laboratory in Portugal to enter the local market Unilbas agreed to acquire an 85% stake in the capital of the laboratory, which has annual revenue of more than EUR 10mln, the company said in an e-mailed statement today (BB)

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Sales Corner: (This area may contain views which can differ from the official bank's opinion!)
Our Top Picks for the first quarter 2006:
ZurichFin one of the cheapest insurance stock in Europe - strong performance expected into first quarter next year - improved perception of risk and going forward better prospects for growth - positive momentum in insurance sector to continue

SwissLife - recent investor day highlighted the profit potential within the group in coming years - low valuation - positive trend in the share price should continue

Converium - could experience some rating upgrades as of next year by different rating agencies and therefore earnings adjustments could follow

Banks - the banks outlook for 2006 remains optimistic - strong stock market performance - increasing M&A activity in 2006 - European investment banks reporting their results in February 2006

Pharma sector - Both Swiss Pharma stocks need to be core holding - could be NOVN to try its leader role in 2006 after the advance of ROG this year - though bare in mind NOVN on shopping tour, which could lead to pressure in the short-term. Sonntagszeitung informed about a possible bid from NOVN for SEO and counterbid from NOVN for Berna Biotech

Serono - due diligence going on - more than one bidder around - expect to see some more strategy news at the end of January

ABB - turnaround story into next year - strong performance should continue - final asbestos solution could be additional trigger

Syngenta - attractive valuation - high EBIT margins - looking for seeds and GM tech acquisitions in the US for 2006
Synthes in our view, price fears overdone - global hip/knee implant sales expected to rise - ProDisc would be a strong trigger

Ciba - new strategy is possible with a disposal or restructuring of its Textile Effects unit - BASF is mentioned to possibly be interested - bare in mind that oil price up-move always relevant for chemical sector

SwissSteel - pure small player - they bought this year Thyssen-Krupp business - now 60% of sales are coming out of the ex Thyssen companies - more up-move expected as quality steel demand continues esp. out of Asia region

GeorgFischer - attractive valuation - strong dividend yield - focus on plastic tubes - divestment of non core units - very good positioned worldwide

Komax - at prices around CHF 90/92 KOMN could be worth a try with a medium term view - only for risk takers - collector's item stock

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Christmas and New Year Holiday in Switzerland: closed only on Monday 26th Dec and Monday 2nd Jan
There won€™t be any morning news€ from December 26th January 6th 2006
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SMI-Chart:
Hourly momentum patterns remain contradictory; the constellation suggests some further consolidation; but watch next support levels;

Res 7550/60, 7620, 7645/55 Sup 7495, 7450/60, 7390/400, 7300
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Company News:
ABB(ABBN VX) Court approves Combustion Engineering€™s Asbestos plan the parties have 10 days to appeal, if no appeals filed, plan will be final ABB has committed $1.43bn for claims (BB)

Roche/Trimeris (ROG VX) new study shows patients achieve undetectable viral load with experimental protease inhibitor (TMC-114) when treated in combination with Fuzeon (BB)

Swisscom(SCMN VX) Swiss Government€™s stake drops to 62.45% has sold shares for CHF 1.35bn in 2005 (38.4mln shares), intends to stake to 50% + 1 share in medium term (BB)

Basilea(BSLN SW) Basilea presents positive phase II clinical trial data on its water-soluble azole BAL8557 in a late-breaker abstract at the 45th Annual Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy in Washington DC Six additional posters confirm its excellent potency against fluconazole-resistant yeasts and its promising activity against difficult-to-treat molds BAL8557 is against yeast and mold infections (BB)

Converium(CHRN SW) company names Inga Beale as new CEO (BB)
Infranor(INI SW) H1 sales CHF 30.4mln / net profit 300k / sees H2 inline with H1 sees 5% rise in FY sales and positive net (BB)

Interroll(INRN SW) Interroll acquires Korean licence partner and will expand its Shanghai plant no terms were disclosed (BB)

Straumann(STMN SW) Straumann names Marco Gadola as new CFO, replaces Marting Gertsch, Gadola was formerly with Hero (BB)

Zschokke(ZKKN SW) company says Swiss antitrust authority opens in-depth probe Zschokke Batigroup merger, Zschokke views merger with Batigroup€™s as unproblematic (BB)

Chemicals Deutsche Bank chemical report: expect ungoing raw material pressure in 2006, marginally positive pricing, vol growth to improve from low H2 2005 level top pick: Syngenta (low PE, new products) / Clariant (offers restr. Potential) / Ciba (increase price target from 77 to 79) / Lonza (increase price target from 74 to 77) / Givaudan (increase price target from 820 to 850) / overall forex (USD) has to be watched (DB research update)

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Sales Corner: (This area may contain views which can differ from the official bank's opinion!)
Our Top Picks for the first quarter 2006:
ZurichFin - one of the cheapest insurance stock in Europe - strong performance expected into first quarter next year - improved perception of risk and going forward better prospects for growth - positive momentum in insurance sector to continue

SwissLife - recent investor day highlighted the profit potential within the group in coming years - low valuation - positive trend in the share price should continue

Converium - could experience some rating upgrades as of next year by different rating agencies and therefore earnings adjustments could follow

Banks - the banks outlook for 2006 remains optimistic - strong stock market performance - increasing M&A activity in 2006 - European investment banks reporting their results in February 2006

Pharma sector - Both Swiss Pharma stocks need to be core holding - could be NOVN to try its leader role later in 2006 after the advance of ROG this year - though bare in mind that NOVN is on shopping tour, which could lead to pressure in the short-term.Sonntagszeitung informed about a possible bid from NOVN for SEO and counterbid from NOVN for Berna Biotech

Serono - due diligence going on - more than one bidder around - expect to see some more strategy news at the end of January

ABB - turnaround story into next year - strong performance should continue - final asbestos solution could be additional trigger

Syngenta - attractive valuation - high EBIT margins - looking for seeds and GM tech acquisitions in the US for 2006
Synthes - in our view, price fears overdone - global hip/knee implant sales expected to rise - ProDisc would be a strong trigger

Ciba - new strategy is possible with a disposal or restructuring of its Textile Effects unit - BASF is mentioned to possibly be interested - bare in mind that oil price up-move always relevant for chemical sector

SwissSteel - pure small player - they bought this year Thyssen-Krupp business - now 60% of sales are coming out of the ex Thyssen companies - more up-move expected as quality steel demand continues esp. out of Asia region

GeorgFischer - attractive valuation - strong dividend yield - focus on plastic tubes - divestment of non core units - very good positioned worldwide

Komax - at prices around CHF 90/92 KOMN could be worth a try with a medium term view - only for risk takers - collector's item stock

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Schwierige Marktlage
Für die Privatanleger sowie die Pensionskassen und Fonds wird das Anlegen von SFR . langsam zu einem Problem. Sollen sie nun in Aktien rein oder in Bonds? Oder gar Geld cash liegen lassen.
Wie geht es 2006 weiter?
1.Gegen ein weiteres Aktienengagement (SMI)spricht,dass der Markt in einem Jahr schon stark performed hat. Risiko einer Korrektur vorhanden.
2. Für ein Investment in Obligationen 3-5Jahren Laufzeit da besteht die Gefahr, dass die Zinsen während den nächsten Monaten steigen werden, also die gekauften Bonds an Wert verlieren.
Ja, steigen die Zinsen, oder steigen sie nicht? und in welchem Zeitabschnitt? Steigen sie, dann spricht das wiederum für Geld liegen lassen, und Bonds bei einem späteren Zeitpunkt kaufen.
So gesehen befinden wir uns z.Zt. in einer heiklen Phase, denn der Anleger ist verunsichert.Er kauf z.Zt. Aktien die 2005 schlecht performed haben. Z.b. CIBN, CLN. ADEN Aber was passiert dann, wenn die Quartals dieser Geschellschaften nicht gut sind. Dann fallen auch diese Titel wieder.
Natürlich kann ein Anleger in Fremdwährungen investieren, z.B. Japan, USA etc. aber Pensionkassen sind hier sicher die Hände gebunden. Das ist auch gut so , denn ein Währungsrisiko besteht halt immer.
Kommt halt doch eine Korrektur anfangs Jahr?
Eigentlich spricht nichts dafür, denn Kapital für Nachkäufe ist sofort da.
Andere Meinungen und Trentanalysen.
Gruss Rich

Hallo Lancelot,
Eigentlich sprach ich von SFR. Investitionen. :lol:
Für den Dow ist die Situation schon anders. Die Bondzinsen bieten eine interessante Anlagealternative (Rendite 4.8%) Deshalb stagniert wohl dort der Aktienmarkt. Hätte wir diesen Zins in der CH sähe der SMI um einiges schlechter aus.. :wink:
Was PFE anbelangt; das ist für mich so ein Titel indem man heute noch ruhig rein kann. :lol:


Wenn die Kuh mal gemolken ist, die Milch getrunken, der Hunger kommt schon wieder bald..Das Sättigungsgefühl hält nicht zu lange, die Gier kommt zurück.. :lol:
Merke das bei mir, sitze auf einer Portion sfr. Cash, möchte investieren , finde aber keine überzeugende Möglichkeit, möchte auch keine Fehler machen.
Ueberlege mir gerade ob ich noch eine Portion DCX kaufen soll. Währungsrisiko € zu SFR. eher klein. Div. Rendite gut, Neues Managment überzeugt. Bin noch ein Bisschen unschlüssig was das Prokukt betrifft.
Gruss Rich

Hallo Lancelot
habe ganz einfach falsch spekuliert. D.H. wohl Geld verdient, aber zu früh verkauft. Das Kauftiming war schon optimal, aber der Verkaufzeitpunkt zu früh. Z.B. ZURN, SLHN, CIBN, ROG, NOVN. Ueberall zu früh raus, weil ich dem Markt nicht traute. Jetzt auf höherem Niveau nachzukaufen, da habe ich eine Hemmschwelle.. :lol:
Denke eben nicht, dass der Markt stark kippt wird in nächster Zeit. Die Situation hat sich verbessert und konsolidiert. Die Zinsen werden in Europa kaum steigen. Und das ist gibt den Aktien Support. Und jetzt kommt dann noch die Dividendeauszahlungszeit. Das ist ebenfalls gut für Aktien.
Gruss Rich

[quote="richard100"]Hallo Lancelot
. Jetzt auf höherem Niveau nachzukaufen, da habe ich eine Hemmschwelle.. :lol:

Hallo Lancelot,
Nein, bewundere meinen Mut nicht. Den habe ich nämlich nicht... :lol:
Die Hemmschwelle überwinden und jetzt zu kaufen die habe ich eben nicht....
Was ich mache ist ich suche nach einzelnen Perlen. Aber die zu finden wird immer schwieriger.. :cry:
Bin auch noch in Aktien drinn. Darum habe ich das Dilemma: Eigentlich möchte ich, dass die Kurse steigen, dann kann ich wieder verkaufen und Gewinn einheimsen, anderseits wenn sie fallen, kann ich nachkaufen, erleide aber PFverluste..
Nehme an Dir geht es gleich.
Gruss Rich

[quote="Lancelot"]


Ganz einfach, sobald ich eine Trendwende spüre, fange ich an die Gewinnbringende Titel zu verkaufen, logischerweise zum teil zu früh.

Mache ich auch so. Nur, eine nachhaltige Trentwende vorauszusehen, das ist schwierig. Wenn ich mit dem gewinn zufrieden bin, steige ich aus...Schliesslich soll man dem Käufer auch noch einen kleinen Gewinn zugestehen.. :lol:

Bis die Trendwende passiert, habe ich einen entsprechenden Teil des Portfolios mit Gewinn realisiert.

Mein Fehler war bis jetzt, dass ich stets wieder zu früh rein bin. Aber bekanntlich lernt man aus gemachten Fehlern. Muss halt stets hart mit mir kämpfen nicht wieder einzusteigen. Harter Kampf mit Gier. Heute war der Kampf besonders stark, habe aber gesiegt. :lol:

Je länger die Steigerung dauert bis die Trendwende erreicht wird, desto mehr Titel habe ich mit Gewinn verkauft.

Stimmt.

Im idealen Fall, verkaufe ich das gesamte Portfolio mit Gewinn. Dann stürzt die Märkte heftig ab.

Da habe ich noch einige Titel im PF seit 2000. So hoch werden die wohl nie mehr steigen :cry: Die bleiben aber liegen. Div. sind für mich sei je ein ausschlagebendes Kaufargument. So habe ich seit 2000 nocht teure DCX im PF. Mit der Div. wurde ich stets gut abgegolten.

Bin ein reicher Glückspilz und kann mit all dem Geld wieder von vorne anfangen.

Bleibt dann nur noch die Hoffnung, dass anschliessend keine Fehlinvestition a l Swissair oder GM erfolgt. Sonst heisst es: ausser Spesen nichts gewesen. :lol:


Was ich nicht mache, ist mitten in der Verkaufsaktion teuere Titel kaufen.
Aber, weil ich nicht weiss, wann der Absturz kommt und wie tief er sein wird, kaufe ich doch ein paar Titel, die besonders günstig erscheinen. Aber nicht übertrieben.

Das meinte ich mit : suche noch nach ein paar Perlen. Für Vorschläge bin ich stets zu haben. Denke PFE könnte so eine sein. Bei einer allgemeinen Korrektur sollten diese nicht mehr viel Boden verlieren.


Das Schwierige daran, ist nicht die Verkaufsaktion-Zeit, sondern der Kauf in einem fallenden Märkt.

Bei beiden kann man viel Geld verlieren. :wink:

Und übrgens: Interessante Diskussion . Danke.
Gruss rich